“Pacquiao will likely dominate”: A theory about circles

Hatton vs. Pacquiao May Come Down to the ‘Circle’

by Don Steinberg

In boxing, statistics often don’t tell the whole story. Many ring insiders reject numbers and say it’s really about styles. To some, the only relevant number in Saturday night’s junior-welterweight clash in Las Vegas between Ricky Hatton and Manny Pacquiao is 360. Or to be specific, 360 degrees.

To get a sense of a fighter’s style, it helps to draw a circle from the top of his opponent’s head down to the canvas. Mr. Hatton wins by fighting in close — he does his best damage inside the circle. He will live in that circle if the referee lets him, hammering his opponent’s body with left hooks and bashing him with rights to the head.

In Mr. Hatton’s breakout victory in 2005, the Briton got inside and mauled Kostya Tszyu until the Russian champ quit after 11 rounds. But in Mr. Hatton’s only loss in 46 fights, the speedy Floyd Mayweather Jr. was able dance out of the circle, maintain separation and punish Mr. Hatton with potshots (eventually flooring him) as he tried to charge in.

Mr. Pacquiao is a slugger, too, but it’s his speed that kills. He works best from outside the circle — darting in and out. The velocity of his body as he moves toward an opponent generates the power behind his fists. That’s how the southpaw destroyed Oscar De La Hoya in December.

Mr. Pacquiao’s weight has varied widely: He began his career at 106 pounds and now fights Mr. Hatton at 140. But size may not matter here as much as space. If Mr. Pacquiao can keep the battle mostly outside the circle, he’ll likely dominate.

SOURCE: Wall Street Journal, Sports Section, May 1, 2009